There are many important things you need to know
to trade and invest
successfully in
the stock
market or any
other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based
on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.
As
simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the
exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will
determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is
determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.
- The stock
market is always right and
price is the only reality in trading.
If you want to make money in any market,
you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and
you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is
going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.Other things being equal, the longer you stay
right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay
wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.
Every
market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have
gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down,
the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes.
This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."
- If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks
or markets make
large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain.
Since we are
dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting
your time looking for the many reasons markets move.A huge mistake most investors make is assuming
that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why
markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know
that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only
care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the
whys.
- Stock
markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals -
Sometimes months in advance. If you
wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is
moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be
too late. You need to get positioned before the largest
directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in
a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good
or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.
- The trend is your friend.
Since the trend is
the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The
key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period
of time to maximize profits. Contrary to the short term perspective of most
investors today, all the big money is made by catching large market moves - not
by day trading or short term stock investing.
- You must
let your profits run and
cut your losses quickly
if you are to have any chance of being successful.
Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets,
but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined
trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading
“system” in itself.
- The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious
and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises
as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.The perfect competition model is not based on
anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional
traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most
non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they
earn. The combination of superior information for some
investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling
low for others, creates inefficient markets.
- Traditional technical and fundamental
analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets.
Successful market timing is possible but not with the
tools of analysis that most people employ.If you eliminate optimization, data mining,
subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most
trading ideas are losers.
- Never trust the advice and/or ideas
Never
trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors,
stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers,
newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money
and have traded successfully for years. Note those that have traded successfully over very
long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and
other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling
wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational
analysis of all the facts.
- The worst
thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio.
Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.You can avoid making that huge mistake by
avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should
only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high. Since your starting point is critical in
determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment
results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.
- The most successful
investing methods should
take most individuals no more than four
or five hours per week and,
for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress
involved.
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